House prices could fall by 25 per cent if the credit crunch persists, with the
market declining by 10 per cent this year and by a further 15 percentage
points in 2009, a new study suggests.
The pain will be felt in all but the most exclusive postcodes, according to
Savills, the estate agent.
However, action by lenders could limit the credit crunch impact to a slide of
6 per cent.
Savills’s revised forecasts coincide with figures from Hometrack, the property
data business, showing that house prices have dropped a further 0.6 per cent
in the past month, the seventh consecutive fall.
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Estate agents polled by Hometrack said that prices are 0.9 per cent lower than
a year ago.
The worst-affected areas are in East Anglia, the West Midlands, Greater London
and Wales.
Prices are now sliding in 51 per cent of postcode areas; a month ago they were
falling in only 28.8 per cent of areas. Agents say that it now takes nine
weeks to sell a house; a year ago it took only about six weeks.
Buyers are achieving 93 per cent of the asking price on average.
Yolande Barnes, Savills’ director of residential research, said that if home
loans were to become more freely available soon, prices could be a mere 4
per cent lower by the end of this year and ease by another 2 per cent in
2009. But she gave warning of greater difficulties if the banks did not end
the mortgage drought.
“It could have very serious consequences for the national housing market and
economy in general,” she said.
Amid the turmoil elsewhere in the country, demand for London houses costing
above £5 million is likely to continue unabated, with international buyers
having no need to borrow. Last week, the would-be buyer of a £25 million
mansion was gazumped.
A divide is opening between what Ms Barnes terms the “super-wealthy” and the
“merely wealthy”. City executives in the latter group fear job losses and,
like everybody else, are struggling to secure home loans.
As a result, prices for London properties between £1 million and £2 million
are under pressure and could fall by as much as 16 per cent.
Eventually the whole market should recover from a severe downswing – but
slowly, Ms Barnes said. She believes that there could be a bounce-back by
2012, with lower prices making property more affordable.
The continuing shortage of homes in most regions should lend support to
prices.
Construction companies such as Persimmon, which are suffering from the credit
crunch, are already downing tools, which will aggravate the shortage of
property.
Ms Barnes is the latest commentator to revise downwards her predictions for
2008, taking into account the bleaker economic outlook and the withdrawal of
credit.
Knight Frank, another leading estate agent, has revised its forecast from a
rise of 3 per cent in property prices this year to a fall of 3 per cent.
Ms Barnes assessed the chance of a 25 per cent slump at 40 per cent and a 6
per cent slide at 60 per cent. The gloomier scenario is based on job losses
spreading beyond the financial sector to other industries such as
housebuilding.
She said: “There are some sites on which homes were to be built which are no
longer viable unless the construction company can renegotiate the deal.”
In recent weeks the banks, scarred by sub-prime debt, have become even more
reluctant to lend to homebuyers. Household finances are also under strain
from higher energy, food and tax bills.
Last week, the Bank of England extended a £50 billion bailout to the banks,
but this has yet to be passed on to borrowers. On Friday Halifax increased
the cost of some of its deals by 0.6 per cent.
Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, said: “Weak confidence is
effectively resulting in a ‘buyers’ strike’ with households sitting on the
sidelines and waiting to see how events unfold.”
Worst case - house prices will fall to a point where the buy to let maths becomes viable i.e. rent covers loan payments with a better return on investment than sticking cash in a savings account. It's a simple calculation, the unknown varaibles are interest rates and inflation(specifically on rents
Phil, London, London
Isn't it about time that the supposed "eggsperts" stopped making rash comments that haven't any foundation. These supposed eggsperts do not buy and sell property like the professional property investor and thus do not know the inside of the real property dealing. They really have egg on their faces
Mike, London,
Shock Horror !!!
Banks will only lend money to those who have the ability to pay it back.................its about time.
DS, London, UK
Usual self-serving guff from estate agents. Why do 'papers attach so much credibility to research put out by banks and estate agents? And why do we need to "limit the credit crunch impact" ? In the boom, did Savills suggest sellers limit their asking prices to help FTBs? You cant have it both ways.
geoff nairn, donostia, spain
People have been buying houses like some investors buy contemporary art: does not matter how it looks and what is the price, but as long as the price is going to increase in a couple of years time, it is worth buying anyway. Now everyone realises that a future price increase is not guaranteed.
beresovskiy, woking, surrey
The housing market madness finally cools and brings on a new madness ..... prices are falling but not for my house! In East Sussex many houses have been on the market for over a year owners must price to sell. Estate agents don't list it if its expensive - tell owners the truth - then you'll sell!
Craig, Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
No other way than 15 to 30% down in 9 to 18 months, as indicated by the latest borrowing and saving figures. Saving went down to 0 end 2007. It isn't very long until people will sell assets to live. Expect 4 to 6 months for this + rise in unemployment + further inflation to start feeding through.
Laurence, London,
Nice to know the Savills publicity machine is working over drive again. Last weekend they told us all that Beaconsfield was the most expensive place to live in the country- and even drew attention to two "prime" roads where they have over-priced houses that aren't selling. Co-incidence? Maybe.
nicole, Beaconsfield, uk
Mortgages are highly leveraged investments and like anything else work wonders when the underlying asset is rising.
Like the sub prime debacle has shown,the reverse is true when price fall.People have actually been playing with up to ten times their capital.Ten percent fall and your capital is gone
James, London, UK
This is all so funny... I really dont know why people worry, what do they expect prises keep on going up... remember dot.com... things had to change otherwise no one would be able to afford to upgrade their house. Just remember the house you have always wanted will be more affordable now...
Paul, Calgary, Canada
See ONS for popn and the UK Housing Review for the stock. There are more properties per person now than in 1991. The new properties are smaller, but the new demand has come from 1) immigrants (they live many to a room) and 2) the homes that have been vacated by the British who allegedly want smaller
Trevor, South east,
House price falls don't matter if you don't need to sell, and they will recover. Invest in a buy to let now while the market is cool, and your homeloan will be repaid in less than 10 years rather than 25. This is a fact.
You either see the opportunity or you complain about the market and do nothing
Matt Tingey, Leeds, England
Its actually a very good time to buy in Wales, with its cheaper prices its a good time to relocate to Wales, cash in your equity and buy a similar sized property. Then if prices do fall, most of your equity is tied up as savings rather than in equity. Popular villages will likely see price rises.
Adam Jarvis, UK, UK
Why this ballyhoo? House prices went up at an exhorbitant rate. A correction is long over due. this will benefit everyone in the long run.
Hamad Lone, London, England
The 3 x dictum below is wrong, London prices should be 3 x salary+equity. FTB Eqty = 0. Those of us who have owned property for a while have quite a bit of equity. Now looking to level of prices, we all want a bigger house, as prices fall we can afford the next jump so we buy, providing support.
AndyG, London, UK
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% over the next 6, 12, 18, 24 Months. Facts and Figures or Punts and Guesses!
We are in a corrective market, batten down the hatches, and see what happens. everyones "crystal ball" is saying something different, I left mine at home today.
Rebecca, Northamptonshire, UK
First the experts said 2008 house prices would be flat, then they said they could fall a little with a soft landing and now they recognise that a 25 per cent drop is a real possibility.
In 6 months time a 50 per cent drop from 2007 prices will seem more realistic, 60 per cent for new flats.
Kevin Herbert, Greater Manchester, UK
"Does anyone her own a house. You all seem to delight in the downturn? JJulian, London, Uk"
I own a flat. Higher prices do not benefit 'home' owners and buyers, as the prices increase it will cost you more to upgrade. Also FTBs are not able to close chains making selling difficult.
Tony, Belfast,
-"If Mars bars cost £50 would you buy one?"
Only if theyd sold out of Snickers.
Todd Jempali, Coventry,
JJulian, in what way do high houseprices benefit anyone other than investors?
For anyone else, it's a blessing.
Dave, Reigate,
The lenders are as powerless as the property owners because they can't securitise the loans and flog them anymore. Investors in debt want an additional risk premium and that has to be paid for. House prices are only going one way for the next few years. All of this is self inflicted by greed.
Edward, London,
House prices go up - bad news.
House prices remain static - bad news.
House prices go down - bad news.
I get the feeling that if someone found a way of building a decent house for 15 quid, the whole economy would collapse.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
The 20+% drop seems most likely;
Any form of "risk" is seen as "bad" by lenders right now so less lending takes place, then new entrants to the mortgage market (and any innovation, eg high LTVs, 100% deals erc) are further discouraged by falling prices, becoming a viscious circle...
Tim, Bristol,
I read that average earnings in England are around the £23,000 mark. If lenders are now applying lets say 4 X earnings the most you should be able to borrow is £92000 less 10% deposit £9200. If you can only borrow £82800 and average prices are £189000 a 50% fall in house prices could be on the cards
John, Hertford,
"While some are gleeful about dropping prices, I hope that they spare a though to the consequences of the job losses..." Higher prices does not mean more jobs. Any increase in wealth of homeowners means a decrease in discretionary income for FTBs. It all cancels out - except for the higher taxes.
RichB, Cookham, Berks,
Of course the Estate Agents caused this! The homeowners never wanted to put their house on at the highest possible price they were forced to by the nasty agent ! People need to take responsibility for their own actions it's called capatilism.If people don't like it they can always vote communist !
Neal , Wokingham, Berks
"Assuming an average London Income of £60K."
Roger, Tunbridge Wells, UK
The average London Salary is £35,000 according to a news article last week. Hence the average house should be £123K, unless someone has distorted the market by creating extra buyers...any suggestions?
Tony, Belfast,
Buyers are now accepting 93% of the asking prices which means already we have had a fall of at least 7%. So these wise guys from savills say if something is done the drop could be limited to 6%. Who actually employs these fools my guess is that prices are already down 10% and falling rapidly.
Gary, Den Haag, Holland
When I bought my first house the building society prudently only agreed to lend me 3.5x my annual gross income. Assuming an average London Income of £60K, the average london flat should be valued at £210K - anything above that is simply a speculator led bubble.
Roger, Tunbridge Wells, UK
This is indeed an optimistic estimate.
It will be well over 50%.
Hiromi Ishida, Tokyo, Japan
Does anyone her own a house. You all seem to delight in the downturn?
JJulian, London, Uk
Estates agents are now talking the market down because they are making no commission because there are much fewer sales. No commission, no job...!
Chris, Oxford,
This is just what the markets need. There is no point in covering it all over with a large cash injection... the problems will still exist. This is good news - Bring on the 25%!
Neil Tilbury, Ruislip, UK
Inflated prices.....if you keep blowing a balloon up it will eventually pop...thisproperty bubble is about to pop....Unrealistic and unaffordable growth....
Gavin, Hull, UK
There is no use in 'property professionals denying it anymore, All the scams and subtifuges in maintaining price levels are being exposed. Many first time buyers have been stressed for years trying to get on the 'property ladder'. Now they are sitting on their deposits. Who knows for how long??
David Nammory, Liverpool,
If Mars bars cost £50 would you buy one?
Why buy a house then?
peter pirfect, wolverhampton, england
The headline should have read...
'Shock horror - estate agent talks market down!'
Read between the lines and they are caught between pleading for a bailout for the mortgage companies and trying to get sellers to reduce prices so they can actually achieve some sales.
harry e, London,
To Trevor Hodges - how do you know which is more likely? You assume the housing market is currently fairly valued? Maybe you have not yet grasped that house prices have an absolute relationship with the availability and cost of credit - and large falls are, therefore, likely
Hilary, Southall,
House prices have been totally OVERVALUED since 2001. They are overdue a significant drop. Blaming the "credit crunch" is gettig boring. Only the estate agents who manage people's unrealistic expectations (years of TV property "investment" programmes) and facilitate price drops will stay in business
Will Hicks, London, UK
better and better!!!!
riccardo, brussels,
Forget the predictions and use your eyes. I live in Notting Hill - one of the supposed exclusive postcodes - three months ago, on any given day, you could see 30-40 buyer-laden Foxtons Minis scooting around Westbourne Grove . Today, you're (un)lucky if you see even 10 a WEEK.
This party's over
Justin Thyme, London, UK
Lets see , a fall of 25 per cent sounds spectacular. A ropey flat worth £40.000 in 1995 increases to £120,000 by about 2002, reached £ 155,000 in 2007 and could in this scenario drop to £116,000. In other words the price of the thing would still have nearly trebled in thirteen years.
John, Southampton,
I think a 25% fall over the next 18-24 months is more likely than a 6% fall.
Mortgage lenders can free up funds but what Yolande Barnes isn't taking into consideration is banks are anticipating falls aswell. They are reducing Loan to Valuations. Which has the effect of reducing available funds.
David, Marlow, Bucks
25% Falls will put the majority of BTL portfolios well into the territory of having to top up equity levels to re-new mortgages.
I believe some lenders even have the condition that equity must not fall below a certain level and reserve the right to call for cash injections.
David, Marlow, Bucks
Trevor, let's do the maths then. 40% of 25 + 60% of 6 = 13.6%. We ought to focus on a 14% fall then. No doom and gloom at all!
Michael, Oxford,
Turkeys warn; 'December could be a rough month' shock!
Jonathan, London,
so, prices rise 300% since the early nineties, but a devaluation to 200% increase since the nineties is off the cards? DONT MAKE ME LAUGH!!!! BAtten down the hatches, this one is the perfect storm, the markets cant save it!!!
Sam Smith, Southport, UK
Trevor Hodges: "Why do we always focus on the worst predictions?"
Worst? In terms of overall benefit to society, a fall of 25% is a more optimistic prediction than a fall of 6%. Imagine a world where money is invested in productive enterprise instead of in the property pyramid scheme.
Dylan, Rossendale,
Yeah!! 10, 15, 20, 25% ... great news!
Richard, Maidenhead,
While some are gleeful about dropping prices, I hope that they spare a though to the consequences of the job losses across the economy when this happens.
Matthew, London, UK
Why do we always focus on the worst prediction? A 6% of drop is more likely but not given the same level of coverage in this article.
Trevor Hodges, London ,
These price falls are a natural part of the market cycle and even making more credit available will not arrest the decline as buyers, quite rightly, will seek lower and lower prices.
Paul, Coventry,
House prises sky rocketing have done much to damage the chances of first time buyers and it's only right that the property market returns to a level more affordable for the majority.
Yetta, aylesbury, bucks
-"House prices could fall a quarter over next two years, agents warn"
Agents warn' Is that a warning? I'm hoping it's a promise!
Emily Barnstree, Leeds,
From an internet discussion forum
www.housepricecrash.co.uk
Frank Hovis: What value would you put on a house?
Dom: It's worth whatever the bank will lend someone to buy it.
(Dom was being sarky)
David S, Manchester, UK
Wasn't the projected fall a week or two ago "up to 25 per cent", albeit first of 15 per cent, then 10 per cent? In other words, there is a minor difference between this prediction and the last one, but it is still reported as news.
News! Things stay the same! Sky still falling!
John Scott, London,
At last estate agents are telling the truth instead of tryong to talk the market up.In order to stay in business they must sell houses.In orfer to that,people must be able to afford them.
stephen hulton, Eure , France