I was away from Tokyo during the Upper House elections, so I speak now from instinct rather than inside information. But I can't help feeling that, six months from now, yesterday's cabinet reshuffle will be a forgotten irrelevance, that will do nothing to save Shinzo Abe from his inevitable doom.
Commentators more deeply immersed in Japanese politics than I (MTC at the excellent Shisaku and the sage Jun Okumura at GlobalTalk) have warm things to say about some of his new ministers (particularly the new Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kaoru Yosano). They may well be right that some of them are sound fellows and good eggs. But it won't make the least difference. The spin which Abe's people are putting on last month's unprecedentedly bad election defeat is that he was let down by idiots in his cabinet (the Defence Minister who thought Hiroshima and Nagasaki "couldn't be helped", the scandal-stricken Agriculture Minister who topped himself etc). They have to say that, of course, because they cannot afford to own up to the obvious fact that the biggest problem lies not with the monkeys, but with the organ grinder himself.
Shinzo hasn't just been a disappointment - he's been a disaster, for his party and his coalition partner, and a disappointment and source of concern to his allies, his regional neighbours, even his unpleasant right wing supporters. You can be as sophisticated as you like in your microanalysis of his new cabinet, but it becomes largely irrelevant in the face of these fundamental facts. Abe's had his chance; he's consistently blown it; and if Japan is to return to the very interesting path of transition on to which it was guided by Junichiro Koizumi, he's got to go.
The appointment of wise, experienced men to the second cabinet (compared to the rather callow Abe chums who dominated the first) might have helped if Abe were a more traditional Japanese prime minister - the kind who thinks of himself as a committee chairman, rather than a national leader, a consensus seeker who doesn't expect to be in the job all that long and wants, above all, not to blow it too badly.
Abe is not this kind of leader. Even though he's failed to articulate it effectively, he is a man of vision - of a Japan defiantly unapologetic about its wartime past (to the point of jingoism), propagating conservative values (of "pride", "respect", "loyalty" to nation and race) closer to those of the pre-war polity than to the post-war pacifist consensus. But this ideological confidence is married to a ineptitude in tactics, communication and personnel management which are fatal in a leader.
The "indiscipline" among his cabinet ministers and senior appointees, which saw four of them resign, wasn't just bad luck. It spoke of bad judgement, but also a lack of authority. Abe's lieutenants stepped outn of line because they didn't respect him, because he lacked those intangible, indefinable qualities of leadership which inspire and unite. Why should the members of his new cabinet - even older and more experienced than their predecessors - respect him any more?
Why didn't he resign after the election? Because none of the potential successors (who are few enough in any case) much want to be in the PM's shoes, for the time being at least. The government faces a bruising autumn, with an Upper House controlled by the opposition for the first time in history. Far better to let an already groggy and discredited Abe absorb more of the punches and embarrassment and then start putting on the pressure for him to quit in a few months' time.
Only two things can save Abe now. The first, more likely, is an implosion by the opposition Democratic Party. Perhaps its leader, Ichiro Ozawa, will be laid low by ill health (he has been troubled for years by a dodgy ticker) - or perhaps the DPJ will once again rip itself apart with a scandal or simple internal squabbling. Less likely, but more decisive for Abe, would be a regional security crisis. A war scare in North Korea or Taiwan and his vague, but uncomplicated affirmations of "toughness", pride and national virtue, could find a grateful audience.