Why there is life yet in the old LDP zombie

Richard Lloyd Parry, Asia Editor

To look at its members you would never guess it, but Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is one of the great zombies of the postwar period ' an unstoppable, unkillable political monster, discreetly clad in a grey suit and dark tie.

Time after time in the past 14 years, critics and opponents have predicted its demise; time after time it has burst out of its coffin, shaken off the grave earth and risen to fight again.

This is the fundamental question about the LDP's crushing defeat in yesterday's Upper House election: does it represent a final stake driven through the heart of the party that has dominated Japan for more than half a century?

Unquestionably it will lead to short-term turmoil ' the political shuffling had already begun last night with the resignation of Hidenao Nakagawa, the LDP secretary-general, the man officially responsible for electoral victories and defeats. Toranosuke Katayama, the party's leader in the Upper House, was relieved of the burden of resigning by his own constituents, who voted him out in favour of a candidate from the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

The Upper House, of which the LDP lost control yesterday, is the equivalent of an elected House of Lords, empowered to scrutinise and delay, but not to veto, legislation. Howere, the new majority enjoyed there by the DPJ gives it the power to cause much mischief ' with votes of censure against Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister, and his ministers, and through the new power it will gain over various parliamentary committees. The defeat of the LDP may yet lead to the departure of Mr Abe, despite his insistence last night that he would hang on. But the fact that it is even in question demonstrates that this is far from being a straightforward political victory and defeat for either party.

Since taking over ten months ago from his predecessor, the brilliant Junichiro Koizumi, Mr Abe's career has been on a downward trajectory. His early diplomatic success in mending bridges with South Korea and China seems long ago. Since then he has been repeatedly embarrassed by a variety of scandals embroiling his cabinet ministers and appointees, three of whom have resigned (one of them his Farm Minister, preferred to commit suicide rather than face the shame).

Worse, Mr Abe has displayed rotten political judgement ' for example in his apparent refusal to acknowledged Japanese responsibility for the 'comfort women', wartime sex slaves forced into prostitution by the Imperial Army. His 'vision' ' a hazy, sentimental and mildly sinister amalgam of right-wing nationalist sentiments, marketed under the label 'Beautiful Japan' ' was never properly articulated or translated into policy. His concrete proposals ' for reform of education and of Japan's 1947 Constitution ' were overshadowed by a scandal about the loss of 50 million pension records. It was not the fault of Mr Abe's Government ' but he never managed to address the indignation of ordinary Japanese about such a fundamental bureaucratic cock-up.

In 2004 Mr Abe himself resigned from his current job as LDP secretary-general after his party came away with a disappointing 49 seats in that year's Upper House election. Six years earlier Ryutaro Hashimoto, then the prime minister, stepped down after winning only 44 seats. Last night the LDP was facing the prospect of fewer than 40 seats ' but Mr Abe was still clinging on.

There is a depressing reason for this: the lack of mature leadership talent in the ruling and opposition parties. Mr Abe's leading potential challenger is Taro Aso, his Foreign Minister, a man even more alarming in his right-wing nationalist views than his boss. The man who will attempt to take the credit for the Democratic Party's successes yesterday is Ichiro Ozawa, its leader, who is a former LDP man himself and a political veteran ' or dinosaur, depending on your point of view. It is sign of how uncertain his own leadership is that yesterday he was not present to receive the applause of his party. After decades of treatment for heart illness, he was said to be too exhausted to appear in public.

Faced with a brittle opposition, without even the energy to renew itself from within, the most likely outcome is continued LDP dominance in an atmosphere of drift and uncertainty. For now there is life in the old zombie yet.