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Recent News and Articles on the Keywords: real estate + more risk + mortgage  Related to the article below (Last Update: 6/5/2008)


CNNMoney.com
Homes in foreclosure top 1 million
CNNMoney.com -
"The figures aren't surprising, but they're pretty ugly nonetheless," said Michael Larson, real estate analyst with Weiss Research. ...
Take Responsibility for Your Decisions: An Open Letter to ... Capitalism Magazine
Home foreclosures set record in first quarter Orlando Sentinel
all 697 news articles »
Real estate, mortgages: Could this stock be any more risky?
USA Today - Jun 3, 2008
The company is a real-estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in mortgage-backed securities. Yes, that's right. It's involved in the real estate ...NLY
(FED) Condition Of The Banking System
Forex Hound, NY -
This approach is consistent with recent lessons we have all learned from residential real estate. Additionally, we are more intensely verifying assertions ...
Fed's Kohn: Banks Still At Risk, Housing Market Not Yet Bottomed AHN
Banks may need to cut dividends, Fed warns guardian.co.uk
UPDATE: US Banks Not Out Of The Woods, Fed And FDIC Regulators Say CNNMoney.com
Forex Pros
all 77 news articles »

Miami Daily Business Review
Real Estate
Miami Daily Business Review, FL -
A recent court filing showed South Beach Hotel Investors owed Oaktree Capital more than $60 million for a mortgage and a mezzanine loan. ...
Another Bank, First Tenn, Exits Mammoth Mortgage Business
CNNMoney.com - Jun 4, 2008
During the housing boom, mortgage credit flowed freely as lenders and investors assumed that home-loan collateral - real estate - would continue rising in ...
Fitch Affirms First Horizon National Corporation's IDR at 'BBB+ ... Business Wire (press release)
all 100 news articles »  FHN
Home sales decline for 5th month in a row
Toronto Star,  Canada -
The average price in May was $398148, up a moderate 4 per cent from May of 2007 The Toronto Real Estate Board said it is continuing to monitor sales ...
Pee Wee Grill Failure Touches Roto-Rooter, Bimbo, GM (Update1)
Bloomberg -
That story will only be compounded if US residential real estate prices continue to decline, leaving more homeowners with mortgages greater than the value ...GM
Zero Overhead Real Estate Investing - Right Now
istockAnalyst.com, OR -
After a huge rally in any market, investors need to be more selective than they generally are. Common sense isn't real common when it comes to investing. ...
Citizens Republic To Strengthen Capital Position With $200 Million ...
Earthtimes (press release), UK -
Despite the ongoing challenges in the current commercial real estate environment, Citizens remains committed to its commercial real estate clients and ...CRBC

Miami Daily Business Review
Foreclosure Crisis
Miami Daily Business Review, FL -
Although the strategy works for all kinds of properties and investors, commercial real estate is getting the most attention from big players with large ...
Source: Google News

Introduction -
JR Barth, JD Shilling - The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1992 - Springer
... for government regulation of real estate finance markets. ... Hendershott and Waddell
or, more generally, Price ... of distributive shares, charging risk-rated premiums ...

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs -
KC Chan, PH Hendershott, AB Sanders - Real Estate Economics, 1990 - Blackwell Synergy
... As expected, the impacts are greater for more heavily levered REITs ... Do Common Risk
Factors in the Returns on Stocks and ... Real Estate Economics 27: 3, 483-515. ...

Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real -
KE Case, RJ Shiller, AN Weiss - 1995 - fannymayfoundation.com
... A more accurate picture would be obtained by looking at foreclosure rates by vintage
year. ... Page 11. Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices 253 ...

Pricing Default Risk in Mortgages -
JF Epperson, JB Kau, DC Keenan, WJ Muller - Real Estate Economics, 1985 - Blackwell Synergy
... tests show that changing either of these parameters affects the results substantially
more than any ... Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The ...

Inflation, Mortgage, and Housing -
JR Kearl - The Journal of Political Economy, 1979 - UChicago Press
... More In the News features. ... The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics Online
publication date: 19-Oct-2007. ... (2003) Household Risk Management and ...

Handing Over the Keys: A Perspective on Mortgage Default Research
KD Vandell - Real Estate Economics, 1993 - Blackwell Synergy
... Diversification in the Real Estate Portfolio. ... More on the Efficiency of the Market
for Single Family Homes ... Default Risk Under Alternative Mortgage Instruments. ...

FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing -
C Foster, R Order - Real Estate Economics, 1985 - Blackwell Synergy
... Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The UK ... Real Estate Economics
13 (3), 273-291. ... registered trademark More information about Blackwell Synergy ...

The Rise and Fall of the ARM: An Econometric Analysis of Mortgage Choice -
JK Brueckner, JR Follain - Review of Economics and Statistics, 1988 - JSTOR
... data base offers detified information on more than 1,000 re ... national surveys in which
hundreds of real estate brokers were ... sen~fi~ty to interesbrate risk and is ...

Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk -
J Heaton, D Lucas - The Journal of Finance, 2000 - Blackwell Synergy
... the quantitative implications of more complex theoretical ... number of potential risk
factors to ... proprietary business value, real estate, defined contribution ...

Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate -
KE Case, RJ Shiller, AN Weiss - Journal of Portfolio Management, 1993 - ideas.repec.org
... Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/ More information through ... "Home Equity Insurance,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and ... "Mortgage Default Risk and Real ...
-

Source: Google Scholar

Q: Shares of Annaly Capital Management (NLY) falling this year. Should I sell or hang on?

A: A quick glance at what Annaly Capital Management does is enough to raise the hair on the back of your neck.

The company is a real-estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in mortgage-backed securities. Yes, that's right. It's involved in the real estate business and it buys securities that have been at the center of recent financial problems.

Despite this, the company has held up well amid a huge dislocation in its industry. The stock is only down about 3% this year through early June and is up almost 15% the past year. The company reported 96% higher earnings of $233.6 million or 51 a share in the quarter ended March 31. And the stock continues to pay an 11% dividend yield.

Things did get a little hairy earlier this year. The stock fell from $21 a share in February to $14.16 in March, a healthy 32% drop. That's hard to take. But you have to remember you're invested in a company that's in a delicate part of the market and the economy right now.

I will run the stock through the four analytical steps we consider. But it isn't really necessary in your case. If you're not able to handle volatility, you shouldn't be invested in a financial company that's involved in mortgage-backed securities.

Step 1:  Risk vs. reward. When you take a risk on a stock, you want to make sure you're properly rewarded. Downloading Annaly's history back to 1997, and including the current dividend yield of 11%, we see the company generated an average annual compound rate of return of 14.9%. That is a healthy return if you consider the S&P 500 has returned more than 10% annualized over the same time period, says IFA.com.

But to beat the S&P 500, you accepted high risk — standard deviation — of more than 100 percentage points. That's about 400% greater than S&P 500's risk during the same period. So to get a 35% higher return you accepted 400% higher risk. Not a good deal.

Step 2: Measure the stock's discounted cash flow. Some investors decide if a stock is pricey by comparing its current price to the present value of its expected cash flows. It's a complicated analysis made simple with a system from NewConstructs. When we run Annaly's stock, we find it's rated "neutral." In other words, the current stock price is roughly equal to what the company is expected to generate in cash over it's lifetime. Using this analysis, it would appear Annaly's stock is fairly valued.

Step 3:  Compare the stock's current valuation to its historical range. BetterInvesting's Stock Selection Guide can help. If the company can increase earnings 6% a year the next five years, as analysts expect, that would put the stock in the "buy" range. That's a green light for investors who believe the price-to-earnings ratio will return to historical norms.

Step 4:  Check the company's financial health. Before investing in any company, you want to make sure it's in good financial shape. A quick way to check is to look at where it falls on the USA TODAY Stock Meter, which ranks stocks from conservative (1) to aggressive (5). Annaly scores a solid 2.3 here. You can get a Stock Meter score for almost any stock by going to money.usatoday.com and putting the stock's ticker symbol or company name into the Get a Quote box.

The bottom line?

The fact you're writing me after the stock fell 30%, tells me you're not prepared to handle this kind of risk. Volatility works both ways, and if you don't want to endure the severe downs that come with this stock's ups, it's probably not for you

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com. Click here to see previous Ask Matt columns.

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To report corrections and clarifications, contact Reader Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification.

 

 
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